“Dead” warning!The calculation behind The Nord Stream 2 project

2022-05-10 0 By

The $11.6 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project involves the interests of Russia, Germany, the United States and Ukraine, and Germany had to mediate with the other three parties in order for the project to go into production unharmed.But on February 22nd, after Russia began its military operation, Chancellor Scholz announced that nord Stream 2’s approval process would be suspended.People do people learned to use tools, now, to make tool for continuous operation, energy has become essential for fuel, and represented by oil traditional energy due to the serious pollution of the environment, has been criticized, and new energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy to provide power and is far from enough, at that time, can provide enough power, and cleaner natural gas,She has become the “hot property” in everyone’s eyes.But the distribution of natural gas on the planet is not so evenly distributed, and countries that have a lot of gas but can’t run out of it, sell some gas to countries that have less energy, and it’s a very normal international trade in energy.Take, for example, Russia and Germany, the subjects of this video.There are four main routes for Russian gas exports to the EU.Yamale-europe pipeline via Belarus and Poland;Blue Stream pipeline through Turkey and Bulgaria;Union line through Ukraine, Slovakia and the Czech Republic;And nord Stream 1, which runs directly through the seabed to Germany.As you can see, in addition to the nord stream 1, the remaining three are through other countries land pipelines to carry gas to continental Europe, when using these pipes should not only give countries along the “tolls”, also always would have been “threat”, as a result, from the bottom of the sea directly to Germany’s nord stream line 1 became the main channels of gas outbound,In 2019, nord Stream 1 accounted for nearly 60% of all gas deliveries to the EU.Putin wondered why we should put our money on someone else’s turf, and immediately went to Angela Merkel, then the German chancellor, to build another undersea pipeline, nord Stream 2.Mr Putin’s state of mind is not hard to guess, the fossil energy industry has been an important source of revenue, and in Russia, according to the related data according to the U.S. energy information administration EIA from 2011 to 2020, crude oil and gas revenues accounted for 43% of the Russian government average annual income, and how to build a pipeline, can deliver 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe,All of a sudden, this will raise the country’s financial revenue, and people’s happy life is just around the corner.At the same time, nord Stream alone would be able to supply Russia’s gas exports to Europe without being threatened by anyone else.For Germany, too, the importance of the route is clear.Not only is American gas twice as expensive as Russian gas, but the United States is already powerful and has troops stationed in Germany. Any further dependence on The United States for energy would reduce Germany to its junior brother — a prospect that Germany cannot accept in any case.More importantly, Nord Stream 2 runs directly from Russia to Germany.This is a pipeline designed to transport 55 billion cubic meters of gas. With nord Stream 1, the total gas transport capacity will reach 110 billion cubic meters. That is to say, the gas sold to the entire Western European countries will be transported to Germany through Nord Stream 1 and 2, and then transferred from Germany to western European countries.Germany will therefore become the total distributor of western European countries, which not only means a considerable transit fee, but also allows western European countries to increase their dependence on German energy transit, and Germany’s status in the EU will immediately increase.So two people a total, said to build to build, immediately began bidding project.But in politics, many things that are clearly right and good are ill-fated.For touching someone else’s cake.Who are the others?The United States and Ukraine.The first is Ukraine, Ukraine is an interesting geographical location, connected to Russia on the one hand, connected to the EU countries on the other hand, their own, to the money is not very rich, to the energy does not have, but also have to import Russian energy to maintain their own development, so he has to keep doing some “small moves” to improve their presence.Was the Russian “alliance line” passes through Ukraine, so he is not only he has the Russian natural gas can be used, and lie to earn $3 billion per year toll, by the way, as a balance between Russia and the eu’s soft underbelly, promote their own geopolitical value, such as the Crimean crisis in 2014, Ukraine is Russia threatened to cut off the line,To keep gazprom from getting out.Can Mr Putin put up with it?Of course not!Putin also quipped in the interview that Ukraine seems to be planning to feed all its citizens through gas transit fees, but Russia clearly has no obligation to do so.So it was decided to start building Nord Stream 2.But after The completion of Nord Stream 2, Russia will be able to export gas directly to Western Europe through Nord Stream 1 and 2, which will make Ukraine an “orphan” on the European continent.The second is the United States. Undeniably, the attitude of the United States, which has always regarded itself as the “world hegemon”, towards Nord Stream II is an important factor affecting its successful completion.There are two main reasons for the United States’ opposition: one is the consideration of economic interests.After the shale oil revolution in 2014, the DOMESTIC shale oil and gas production capacity of the United States increased significantly, and the United States changed from a net energy importer to a net energy exporter.In 2018, the US exported 3.9 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe, but China imposed a 25 percent tariff on US natural gas in the same year as it provoked a trade war with China. In this context, the US turned to expand its natural gas exports to Europe.In 2019, it jumped to 18.7 billion cubic meters (the bar chart shows that the huge gap between two years can highlight nearly five times the difference and why). The huge size of exports has led the United States to compete with Russia for the “fat meat” of the European continent, and if Nord Stream 2 is built, the United States will no longer be able to raise money from the EU.The other is geopolitical.In 2019, the EU imported 40% of its total consumption of natural gas from Russia. If The Nord Stream 2 line is opened, it is expected that Russian natural gas will account for more than 60% of the total consumption of the EU, which will inevitably form the EU’s huge dependence on Russian energy.NATO is originally the United States deployed in Europe, to deal with Russia’s military organization alliance, this group of “guns” for energy and Russia suddenly became “good friends”, the United States elaborate layout not suddenly become “rusty iron”?But continental Europe is not united, either, and is ambivalent about Nord Stream 2.The current leaders of the EU are Germany, with its manufacturing and economic prowess, and France, with its military prowess.At one level, we could even argue that Germany made peace with France by making its military force a nonexistent waste, after all, the germans’ power over half the world in the two world wars was so impressive.But if Nord Stream 2 is completed, and Nord Stream 1’s capacity gives Germany control over the distribution of gas across Western Europe, how much say will France have in the EU?In addition to French, other western European countries, including Italy, the Netherlands and so on while also be nord stream line 2 production beneficiaries – can use cheaper price to buy Russian gas, but the beneficiary is not willing to be a little economic interests to sin against America and eastern Europe countries, so basic it is cats do not speak, let alone Germany for nord stream 2 projects alone in the eu.Little wonder, then, that Nord Stream 2 has had a chequered fate.The construction of Nord Stream 2 project was started in 2014, but it was actually started in 2018. It took four years of wrwring and wrwring between the parties. After the construction of nord Stream 2 project started in 2018, the interference from the EU and the US became more intense, so that by 2022, the line was still not completed.Now, the Nord Stream 2 project has been suspended, and western countries have issued sanctions on Russian energy, which not only makes Russia face a huge dilemma, but also makes the global energy market also fluctuate greatly.Soaring oil prices, energy shortages, volatile stock markets and the flapping of butterflies in Beijing caused a Mississippi storm in which European countries were the main victims.The 28-nation European Union produced about 4 million terajoules of natural gas in 2019, only about a third of its total gas consumption.According to the data released by the Economic Commission for Europe, Slovenia and other 10 countries all import natural gas from Russia. The 27 EU countries (the UK has left the EU) have a total dependence on Russian natural gas of 41%, among which Germany is 49% and France 22%.On March 7, German Chancellor Scholz said Germany would continue to rely on energy imports from Russia.”There is currently no other way to ensure the supply of heat, transport, electricity and energy to industry in Europe,” he said.On the same day, Bulgarian Prime Minister Vladimir Petkov said his country might seek an exemption from eu energy sanctions if the bloc decides to impose them on Russia.In addition, France and other EU member states also said that they do not support sanctions against Russia’s energy sector.The ideas of the New Oil War are still relevant today. Whose interests are best served by a conflict between Russia and Ukraine?Russia’s huge oil and gas exports to Europe, the Ukraine, finally drew the Russian troops, while Europe and the United States and other countries have sanctions against Russia, Russia’s big hit, the international energy prices, and there is a huge energy supply in Europe, Ukraine face of national crisis, indications that only the United States is the last of the big winners.All kinds of conflicts are actually just conflicts of human interests. Now, fossil energy, which has been bred in nature for thousands of years, has finally become a “sharp edge” in the competition for interests.(Source: City Financial News by Zhang Jiayi)